A strike may have halted movie and film television production, but investors are staging their own walkout on the stocks of streaming companies.
Netflix, which has handsomely outperformed the market this year, fell 9% through the first three weeks of September. Roku and Warners Bro. Discovery, which posted gains this year, fell 10% and 9.5%, respectively. Disney, whose stock has posted significant losses this year, is also down in September. Its stock fell 2.5%.
The S&P 500 has fallen in September, but streaming stocks have nose-dived.
As the Hollywood strikes drag on longer, streaming companies already facing profitability concerns, have suffered. Wall Street analysts expect the industry to keep struggling but are betting on Netflix as the one potential gainer moving forward, buoyed by its password-sharing crackdown in May and recent growth from its ad-supported streaming plan.
“It’s a disastrous group, and making any money in it is very difficult,” said Alec Young, chief investment strategist at Mapsignals. “I don’t even like to look at these stocks. They’re just a total disaster.”
Though September is historically a rough month for stocks, the S&P 500 is down only 1.94% this month, while streaming companies’ losses have fared much closer to double-digits.
While the Hollywood writers’ strike drags on, the effects of the months-long battle are likely to weigh heavily on the sector.
As part of negotiations, writers want residual payments from streaming services, among other concessions, which hurt the already mostly unprofitable industry as the battle for subscriber growth stretches on.
Netflix, however, has profited even as the sector hasn’t, showing it remains the streaming industry giant as its competitors vie for second.
Figures released by Antenna show Netflix added 2.6 million new accounts in July, shortly after the password-sharing crackdown, showing the effort worked even if it angered some subscribers.
Its $7 ad-supported plan is also growing on users. Around 23% of new Netflix sign-ups in July went to the streaming platform’s ad-supported plan — up four percentage points compared to June and the highest yet since the plan launched in November last year.
Investors see the plan as a cheaper alternative for would-be subscribers but also a way to hold onto current users who might opt for a discounted plan when they would have otherwise canceled altogether.
“Nobody gets rid of Netflix, and then it’s a fight among the rest of them,” said Young.
That’s not to say Netflix has been immune to the sector’s malaise. The company’s CFO, Spencer Neumann, recently expressed concerns about the effects of the Hollywood strikes and reported softer margins at a Bank of America conference in New York.
Netflix is also battling an industry-wide transition to ad-tier subscription packages, which come at a lower cost but a model it is less familiar with than its competitors. The transition has been kind thus far, but investors are unsure if the early success will stick.
Still, investors mostly remain bullish. A Bloomberg survey of Wall Street analysts found that 33 recommend buying Netflix stock, 20 say to hold, and just four say to sell.
For Chrissy Farah, an independent investor of 12 years, the news and recent dips in Netflix’s stock smells like opportunity, but he won’t touch any other streaming company’s stock, he said.
“We’re going to see what happens with interest rates and the economy overall,” Farah said. “If we don’t find any support, Netflix will retrace along with it. Even if it comes down a bit, that’s an opportunity for us to buy to go back up.”
Investors say Disney, the second biggest streaming service, has a more bleak picture, as does the rest of the industry.
The company has had major losses on its streaming service despite its bundle, which includes access to the lucrative streaming rights of live sports. Disney has aggressively raised the prices for its streaming services over the years and helped lead the transition of ad-tier packages, but neither has helped turn a profit.
Instead, Disney’s CEO Bob Iger recently revealed plans that the company would double its investment into its theme park and resorts, perhaps seeing fewer opportunities for a streaming rebound.
“There’s going to be an opportunity in Netflix before Disney ever recovers,” Farah said.