Moderna, which led the biotechnology sector’s pandemic-driven surge, struggles to keep pace with the market.
Moderna, Inc.’s windfall during the pandemic has now become its headwind.
Once propelled to record highs by its breakthrough messenger RNA technology, the pharmaceutical firm’s continued reliance on its Covid-19 vaccines now acts as a drag amid waning demand and evolving regulatory policies. Peaking at $484.47 in August 2021, Moderna closed at $25.24 on Friday.
The Massachusetts-based company faces complicated market pressure, as it rose from having almost no known product in the market to producing one of the world’s most critical vaccines. Its profits and costs are drawn primarily from its Covid-19 portfolio: In 2022, vaccine sales generated $18.4 billion — accounting for 90% of the company’s total revenue.
But that stream is drying up. In the first half of 2025, Covid-19 vaccines contributed roughly 80% of the company’s $250 million topline.
“Can they target the right programs in their pipeline to increase their sales growth and return to profitability so they’re not under this pressure of limited cash?” said Karen Andersen, director of healthcare equity research at financial services firm Morningstar.
“It’s kind of a ticking clock,” said Andersen. “That’s what has a lot of investors nervous or holding their breath.”
Following significant cuts in research and development as well as operating costs, Moderna announced in July its plans to downsize 10% of its global workforce by yearend to realign spending. The pharmaceutical firm expects to achieve cash flow breakeven by 2028 through its new products and international market expansion.
Moderna is optimistic of its developments of flu-Covid combination, Norovirus, and personalized cancer vaccines where the firm has lean competition. Pfizer, its key competitor, has an ongoing supply deal with Europe that has pushed Moderna out of the international market. But with the contract ending in 2026, Moderna projects growth outside the U.S. in the coming years.
In the interim, the company stock skid after vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday voted unanimously to recommend a narrow “shared clinical decision-making” process where people who want a Covid-19 vaccine, including high-risk individuals, must first consult with a health care provider.
The S&P Pharmaceuticals Select Index also took a hit and dropped 1.28% at market close.
While decisions on insurance coverage and state regulations may take some time to follow the committee’s recommendations, new policies will require additional steps in the process of getting a vaccine — and, possibly, out-of-pocket expenses — that could further reduce demand.
For Moby Butt, a Moderna retail investor who also regularly gets his vaccine, more restrictions do not necessarily mean less demand. He lives in Louisiana, where he said onerous requirements make it difficult to get shots.
“After getting a doctor’s note, which my provider refused to give me even though I qualified, the pharmacist then went through a long list of questions,” he said. Because of acute bronchitis, Butt said he makes sure to get vaccinated “even if it’s extra hurdles.”
Butt said he had asked the pharmacist one time if she was busier than usual, and she told him she was, because people were worried the government might take away their vaccination.
“Bancel is right,” he said, referring to Moderna chief executive officer Stephane Bancel. At a healthcare conference earlier in September, Bancel said “hardcore vacciners,” or those who regularly get their shots, provide a strong base for future products.
“Those who believe in vaccinations are getting them one way or another,” Butt said.
A Washington Post report revealing that the Trump administration’s health officials would link child deaths to Covid shots recently toppled pharmaceuticals. Moderna and Pfizer fell 7% and 4%, respectively. In a statement, Moderna said it is “not aware of any deaths in the last year or pertinent new information from prior years” because of Covid shots.
“The safety of Spikevax is rigorously monitored by Moderna, the U.S. FDA, and regulators in more than 90 countries,” the statement read. “Multiple, overlapping safety monitoring systems are in place that work to detect and evaluate any new or evolving safety considerations.”
The recent removals of CDC director Susan Monarez and longtime vaccine adviser Paul Offit add another layer of uncertainty to the sector.
But analysts are looking at Moderna’s oncology pipeline and see an eventual bullish reversal. The biotechnology firm is currently undergoing phase 3 of clinical trials for a personalized mRNA treatment for melanoma and lung cancer. Tests have so far shown benefits in patients who had received the treatment.
“I don’t think the stock would need the revenue to start flowing for the oncology product,” Morningstar’s Andersen said. “If there’s confirmation that the phase 3 study was really strong, stock performance would be positive.”
Using mRNA technology for cancer treatment is also less controversial because it caters to patients who are already sick. “And if it’s improving their survival, then it would be, I think, something that the FDA could even accelerate approval for,” Andersen added.
Butt, a software engineer who used to work at the bioinnovations sector, believes Moderna is undervalued. His initial position averaged about $40 and it has now dipped to around $20. But he said he is not bothered by the “noise” of policy and regulatory changes.
“People look at money being lost in the company, and I look at it as they’re spending a lot on research,” he said. “Even if revenues fall, it doesn’t really matter because I understand what’s sitting in the future.”
What Moderna needs now is to prove that it can bring another unique product to the market. Contrary to its current stock trend, its pipeline is showing promise for new heights.