Three years after the pandemic, theaters have reopened but streaming has not let them recover.
Even as Americans returned to concerts, restaurants and vacations, they have not returned to movies in the same numbers. In December 2015, domestic box office revenue reached $1.3 billion; now, ten years later, with a few days remaining in the month and no major releases remaining, it has fallen to $517 million, according to data from Box Office Mojo.
The box office has become smaller and more fragile, with this year delivering fewer consistent hits and weaker performance from mid-budget films that were once the backbone of Hollywood. In October, the U.S. and Canadian box office pulled in $445 million, the lowest on record outside of pandemic closures. Five years earlier, in December 2019, theaters rang up nearly $1 billion in revenue, thanks in part to the release of Lucasfilm’s Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker.
Attendance remains well below pre-pandemic levels, mid-budget films continue to struggle and theaters are increasingly dependent on eventification films on a narrow set of blockbuster weekends. These films are shared cultural experiences that generate massive buzz on social media, like the pre-pandemic Avengers Saga or 2023’s Barbenheimer, a name given to two blockbusters, Barbie and Oppenheimer that had simultaneous theatrical releases.
“It’s truly unprecedented to witness not just one, but two films perform so remarkably well and mutually bolster each other with the ‘Barbenheimer’ trend,” said Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore Senior Media Analyst. “I’m hard-pressed to recall any comparable instances in history where both movies experienced growth thanks to their interdependence,” he added.
Barbenheimer, however, was the exception, not the rule and theatres are searching for more reliable ways to bring audiences back.
“But clinging to the norms of a pre-pandemic world or to the temporary adjustments made during that time, threatens the overall health of this great industry,” according to Michael O’Leary, President and CEO of Cinema United at Cinemacon earlier this year.
One such adjustment are theatre windows. For decades, films played exclusively in theatres for about 90 days but post-pandemic windows are now often just 17 to 31 days, reducing the urgency for audiences to see movies during this period. Studios are now going for a hybrid model with this shorter window and prioritizing streaming.
This shift in strategy is becoming increasingly common, with theatres primarily boosting a film’s visibility before its streaming debut.
Red One, a Christmas Action-Adventure Comedy starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans, who led the billion-dollar Avengers franchise, grossed a modest $97 million over a 28-day run. While the final box office number surpasses Hollywood’s long-standing $50 million benchmark for hits in the drama and comedy genre, its $250 million budget and star power set much higher theatrical expectations. Although it fell short in theatres, the film quickly became a Prime Video hit last year, gaining 50 million global viewers in its debut weekend.
The North Pole’s Head of Security (Dwayne Johnson) must team up with the world’s most infamous bounty hunter (Chris Evans) to find Santa Claus after he is kidnapped.
This was thanks to a plan that included “a theatrical release and associated marketing campaign, which drove audiences to theaters and generated awareness for the film with viewers who would ultimately tune in on Prime Video,” according to Jennifer Salke, the former Amazon MGM Studios head.
Before the pandemic, it was habitual to go to the movies. Consumers did not need a special occasion to buy a ticket. Of the 25 dramas and comedies released in the last three months, not one became a hit, even those headlined by big-name stars like Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, and Sydney Sweeney, the latter of whom helped raise American Eagle’s stock earlier this year in a viral but controversial marketing campaign.
Now people are more selective and it has become an event-based experience. Only the biggest releases create a kind of urgency called fear of missing out that puts people in seats. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey sold out IMAX screens a year in advance. Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film dominated the box office. Anime blockbusters with massive Gen Z followings, like Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle and Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc and even Netflix’s hit movie K-Pop Demon Hunters, packed theaters nationwide during a limited run.
The theatrical window has become a shortened self-reinforcing problem. Audiences who know that a film will be available to stream within a few weeks may choose to wait longer. That delay often contributes to weaker opening weekends, which in turn leads to theaters cutting showtimes and studios pulling films faster, shrinking an already shortened run. With this new post-pandemic loop, smaller, more original and well-reviewed films no longer have the opportunity to build word-of-mouth momentum.
“Windows that are too short, or inconsistent, only lead to confusion among consumers, particularly among casual moviegoers who are so important,” according to O’Leary at the same convention. “The perception, or more importantly, the reality at times, that everything will be available on other platforms in a matter of weeks, undercuts the sustainability of the entire industry by negatively impacting the frequency of movie fans going to the theatre.”
This shortened release cycle has also changed how some studios greenlight and market films. Promotional campaigns are now more concentrated with brief theatrical runs to introduce the platform debut, as with the case with Red One. While this approach allows studios to reduce financial risk, it also weakens the traditional theatrical model.
While theatre owners have asked for the return of longer theatrical windows, with even legacy studios shifting more energy and capital toward their individual streaming platforms, they have no incentive to do so. While a strong theatrical opening still matters, feeding the subscription pipelines has become the studio’s priority as streaming allows for more predictable returns. Analysts say that these platforms have learned that creating sports packages and family-friendly catalogs creates appointment viewing, preventing cancellations, all from the comfort of home, even as prices increase.
While movie theaters struggle to fill seats, streaming platforms are demonstrating remarkable staying power. Netflix added 8% more global subscribers over the past year, even as it raised prices multiple times. Paramount+ and Disney+ have both reported net subscriber gains, driven largely by their family-friendly catalogs and live sports content.
The $15-20 monthly cost of a streaming subscription provides unlimited on-demand content, while a single movie theater trip for a family of four can easily exceed $100 when tickets, concessions, and parking are factored in.
Industry leaders, however, are optimistic that, despite these challenges, the big screen will survive.
“Weekend box office is important, but a more accurate measure is looking at the industry on an annual basis and considering myriad other factors in the marketplace to get a more complete picture of the strength of the industry,” according to O’Leary. “2025 is a perfect example of a year where an inconsistent box office threatens to overshadow other variables that point to a bright future for movies on the big screen.”